After the 5th september’s ceasefire, Ukraine and Russia had restarted to contend between them the eastern Ukrainian border. A lot has been said about the crisis taking in consideration the foreign policies and energetic points of view. But, there is another point of view directly connected with the two mentioned above: the internal opinions about the crisis.
In Russia, the will to get “back” the Ukrainian country is strong and the general opinion about the topic is, as 75% of eastern Ukraine is Russian speaking, the annexion as the natural resolution of the crisis . About the ceasefire, over 70% of the common wisdom is based on the fact that Ukrainians were worried of losing the Mariupol area and that brought aggressiveness and struggles back, and Russia respected the agreement as the Dombas region is an European objective, as there’s no aggressiveness in foreign policies towards Ukraine ( as 59% of the population disagrees that even has to be considered a war the one between the two States) .
On the other side, Ukrainian community disagrees with these points as the common opinion lies on the fact that Russian agents are moving towards the eastern part of Ukraine without visible emblems and are making recruitment by Internet. About the will of Donetsk’s people to get independence, most of the Ukrainian population find it inconsistent (as 65,7% of people want independence for the WHOLE State), and the separatists troops fighting are in small numbers, because regional institutions have trust in the interim government of Poroshenko based .
To add more, the tensions between russophones and Ukrainian speakers is also inconsistent, economic and religious differences are more evident . Almost all of Ukrainians find themselves in total agreement about the major problems that they are facing: disinformation and blackmailing. Basing on this opposition of opinions, the crisis is well rooted inside socio-political grounds of discussion.
What can be said is that the energetic issue between the two States is still far from a proper win-win solution (where the two States find an agreement that has mutual benefits), and the sociopolitical situation doesn’t seem to be better. If the EU wants to find a proper solution to the crisis, it should start by analysing and considering a priority the solution to the sociological conflict, prior to any aggressive intervention.
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Andrea Jorma BuonfrateLondon school of Economic and Political Science chart n° 7: Responses in Russia to the question: “Generally speaking, do you support the current actions of Russia to support the annexation of Crimea?” by Ellie Knott Idem, chart n°3 Based on PEW Research Center statistics; As Dario Quintavalle explains in his article “Ukraine, what’s now?” in Limes magazine 6/3/2014;