Huntington foresaw in 1996 the scenario of 2015
When Samuel Huntington published his book, the world was exiting the Cold War, the need for a rebuilt in the international society was a necessity. He told us that this renewal could lead to cultural and religious struggles instead of nations struggles. In 2015, we are facing exactly what Huntington predicted, the Islamic State is operating though the exact same lines of judgement that were foreseen, was this situation possibly predictable?
What can be told is that in 1996 the geopolitical situation was still under the effect of the Cold War and the conversion of eastern states to democratisation was not as smooth as it could have been planned. Huntington saw the Gulf War, the struggles in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the evolution of the states in the Middle East. Terrorism, as Osama Bin Laden wrote in the terrorist’s j’accuse of 2001 (after the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York), are going after the Western society as a whole and their attack are related to every decision made in the last 20 years.
Al-Baghdadi and other ISIS leaders are following up the work left by their predecessor, modifying it using modern technologies. Facing this kind of anti-western ideals brought by the Islamic State has been proven as a major problem to the Western countries and, as the ISIS is getting closer to the European States, the questions remains always the same: where will they hit? Where are they’re headquarters? Facing terrorism s a difficult task, a low profile and silent menace that could hit sensitive targets without being noticed.
Huntington was right; these new conflicts are related to the internal structure of the countries, played on cultural and religious borders between populations. But, are countries relying more on security, or are they on force? One thing is sure. War is now for civilisation.
Andrea Jorma Buonfrate